MS-13 News and Analysis

Mexican Army

2009-12-23T13:28:00Z

Mexican Army in Sinaloa
Rancho Parte Films : Ioan Grillo & John Dickie : December 21st, 2009

Summary & Analytical Note:
This is a quick video focusing on select Mexican Army operations in Sinaloa, Mexico. It is not directly related to the Maras. However it is related in that the Cartels have been known to recruit from the Maras. In general, on our current course, the state of affairs in Mexico potentially a scenario we could see in the Southwestern US.

Counter Network

2009-12-15T01:43:00Z

Central American Law Enforcement Exchange
FBI Press Release : November 10th 2009

Link:
http://www.fbi.gov/page2/nov09/calee_111009.html

Summary:
A joint State Department and FBI initiative called the Central American Law Enforcement Exchange (CALEE) brings together U.S. and Central American agencies to share information and intelligence in the fight against the growing gang problem. The program is about forging relationships across agencies that deal with the growing transnational gang problem. The most recent exchange brought together representatives from El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize, along with their U.S. counterparts from the Los Angeles Police Department, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, and officers from Northern Virginia and several jurisdictions in North Carolina, where gang activities have been increasing.

Analytical Note:
CALEE isn’t like many initiatives aimed at making arrests. This is more about forging relationships, which can be leveraged at a future date when questions arise or cooperation is required. Participants will have a rolodex…I guess they don’t make those anymore! Well, they will have multiple contacts to reach out to.

MS-13 a 3G Gang?

2009-12-02T21:21:00Z

The Impact of Third Generation Gangs in Central America
Air & Space Power Journal : John Sullivan : July 1st 2008

Link:
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/apjinternational/apj-s/2008/2tri08/sullivaneng.htm

Summary:
This is an analytical paper written by John Sullivan describing the evolution of criminal gangs and assigning different gangs a generational stage of 1 thru 3.

• First Generation Gangs are traditional street (or prison) gangs with a turf orientation. Operating at the lower end of extreme societal violence, they have loose leadership and focus their attention on turf protection and gang loyalty within their immediate environs (often a few blocks or a neighborhood). When they engage in criminal enterprise, it is largely opportunistic and local in scope. These turf gangs are limited in political scope and sophistication.
• Second Generation Gangs have a business focus. They are entrepreneurial and drug-centered. They protect their markets and use violence to control their competition. They have a broader, market-focused, sometimes overtly political agenda and operate in a broader spatial or geographic area. Their operations sometimes involve multi-state and even international areas. Their tendency for centralized leadership and sophisticated operations for market protection places them in the center of the range of politicization, internationalization and sophistication.
• Third Generation Gangs have evolved political aims. These are the most complex gangs and they operate—or aspire to operate—at the global end of the spectrum, using their sophistication to garner power, aid financial acquisition and engage in mercenary-type activities. To date, most 3 GEN Gangs have been primarily mercenary in orientation; in some instances, however, they have sought to further their own political and social objectives.

Sullivan then places MS-13 and the 18th street gang in the 3rd Generation. He also highlights the importance of the prison system in El Salvador to the culture and operations of MS-13.

Analysis:
I don’t agree with Sullivan’s paradigm, nor with his own estimation of MS-13 as a 3rd Generation gang. All told, I think this paper is interesting in that it highlights the importance of the prisons in El Salvador, but still flawed. What Sullivan calls, “First Generation Gangs”, I would simply call gangs. I think the word “gang” has certain immature or adolescent connotations. Group identity and belonging are the key motivators for the formation of gangs, which is why most gang members start in their teens. I guess it’s possible that gangs could evolve as their initial nucleus of members grows older. When you look at his definition for 3rd generation it seems like he is touching on aspects of terrorist organizations. When you start seeing sub national organizations that use violence to achieve political aims, I think you are well out of the “gang” framework and into the world of terrorism. Finally, does MS-13 have political aims? I guess you might be able to say that the assassination attempt on the ICE agent last month was an attempt albeit clumsy to shape policy? But I think that is pretty tortured analysis.

More Structure Emerges

2009-12-01T16:03:00Z

MS-13 Members Plot to Kill a Federal (ICE) Agent
www.upi.com : November 4th 2009

Link:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2009/11/04/Salvadoran-gangs-targeted-NYC-agent/UPI-40531257372453/

Summary:
According to his own statements in prison, MS-13 member Walter (Duke) Torres was put in charge of a plot to murder a federal agent in New York City. Torres is reportedly a member of a Virginia based Clique, which received orders from MS-13 gang leadership in El Salvador to conduct the operation. Torres divulged this information while detained after being arrested in Queens on a Virginia warrant. The existence of this plot seems to be confirmed by an additional MS-13 informant who added that this federal agent was targeted because of his vigorous efforts to target gang members.

Analysis:
This event marks a milestone in the evolution of this gang. In past analysis, MS-13 has been described as a loose network of ill-defined cliques, with shifting loyalties. If true, this event demonstrates several key emerging attributes, new to the gang.

First, command and control was exerted from prison in El Salvador. Until now, evidence of control emanating from Salvadorian prisons existed, but was ill-defined and anecdotal. This seems to be a clear and unambiguous example of an operation involving multiple cliques being directed from prison in El Salvador.

Second, the gang seems to have more enhanced situational and threat awareness. Perhaps, this is due to people apprehended by this ICE agent, ending up deported and back in Salvadorian prison. It is worth noting that the gang seems able to identify high level enforcement personalities and target them, albeit clumsily.

Finally, this is clearly an escalation. We’ve seen these sorts of attacks on the border for years now, conducted largely by the Gulf and Sinaloa Cartels, which have also been linked to MS-13. As expected, we now see this sort of crime occurring not on the border but in the heart of our biggest city. You can expect these types of events to escalate both in sophistication and level of violence.

New Enforcement Tactic

2009-01-16T13:44:00Z

In New Tactic, L.A. Goes After Gangs' Money
Yahoo News : Daniel B. Wood : January 15th 2009

Link:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20090115/ts_csm/apayup;_ylt=AiVrlq1zMsMPKeFyBDvFIuwDW7oF

Summary:
The city of Los Angeles, which is arguably the national gang epicenter, has developed a new tactic to use against gangs, cash damages. The city announced Tuesday that it had won its first civil judgment, for $5 million, against the 5th and Hill gang that had dominated the heroin trade in downtown LA for decades. The verdict could bode well for another first-of-its-kind lawsuit the city filed last month against 18th Street Gang members that goes after all the assets of gang leaders, not just those associated with their criminal activity. Both suits will funnel money back into improving the neighborhoods affected by the gangs through a fund. The civil suits were filed under different amendments to state laws, one passed in 2007 and one in 2008, designed to strengthen authorities' ability to control gangs. The 2007 amendment allows law enforcement to seize assets associated with criminal conduct. But the 2008 law goes even further – it allows prosecutors to collect damages from gang members' personal assets, too. The December suit against the 18th Street gang is the first to make use of the 2008 amendment. The City Attorney's office says it is moving against the 18th Street gang on behalf of residents who can't file suit themselves because they can't afford the expenses and they fear retaliation. Gangs control certain neighborhoods by exacting so-called "street taxes" on home and business owners as well as street vendors. It names nine leaders of the 18th Street gang, which has operated for years in the Pico-Union and Westlake areas.

Mexico = Failed State?

2009-01-15T13:34:00Z

U.S. MILITARY REPORT WARNS 'SUDDEN COLLAPSE' OF MEXICO IS POSSIBLE
The El Paso Times : Diana Washington Valdez : January 13, 2009

Link:
http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354

Summary:
Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats. The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. As reasons, the report points to the fact that the government, politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.

Analytical Note:
I would be highly interested in the details of the contingency planning which is no doubt taking place should a Mexican collapse occur.

Human Heads in Plastic Bags

2008-12-22T19:05:00Z

Nine Severed Heads Found in Mexico
Washington Post : December 22nd 2008

Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/21/AR2008122100968.html

Summary:
Nine severed heads were found in the Mexican state of Guerrero yesterday. Apparently, the heads, belonging to Mexican soldiers, were found together in plastic bags and the bodies were recovered from other sites. The heads, though not reported in this article, were found with a note indicating these murders were a reprisal for military actions against the drug cartels. To date, there have been 5,300 drug related murders in Mexico this year.

Comment:
The situation in Mexico is completely out of control. Mexican authorities are now murdered wholesale! According to voluminous press reporting, the power and influence of the Mexican cartels is growing and spreading. They are spreading out into the south western United States in order to control the distribution networks, Like MS-13 Cliques, and also into Guatemala and points south to control the supply and increase profits. In short they want to cut out middle men. It’s clear they will kill whoever gets in their way.

Documentary

2008-11-26T04:28:00Z

Documentary on MS-13
History Channel - Gangland Series

Heads on Stakes

2008-11-25T17:53:00Z

Seven Die In Guatemalan Prison Riot
The Washington Post (From Reuters) : November 22nd 2008

Summary:
Seven inmates have been killed in a prison riot between members of MS-13 and the 18th Street Gang. The riots took place at Pavoncito prison in Guatemala, which holds almost 900 prisoners, mostly drug offenders. The riots were reportedly caused when a transfer of prisoners from another prison occurred. Apparently, as part of the killings several of the killed were decapitated and their heads were put on stakes.

Comment:
MS-13 seems to derive its culture from several prisons in El Salvador. There have been instances in the past where murders on US soil were conducted on orders originating from prisons in El Salvador. However, as this article illuminates, there are MS members in prisons in large numbers throughout Central America.

Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/22/AR2008112201542.html

Clique, Clique, Boom!

2008-11-24T03:51:00Z

Clique Overview (Revised and Updated)
Msthirteen.com : November 23rd 2008

Comment:
Thus far, the Clique Overview has been one of the most popular and commented upon posts, with many readers commenting on additional cliques previously unknown to Msthirteen.com. In this update, reader identified cliques have been incorporated. However, it is important to note that the reliability of unknown readers is exactly that, unknown. Additionally, the credibility of the information provided has not yet been verified. The cliques in bold are from the first listing and were derived from press of government reporting and should be considered more reliable.

California
Los Angeles - Rampart Locos
Los Angeles - Coronado Locos Salvatrucha
Los Angeles - Hollywood Locotes Salvadtruchos (HLS)
Los Angeles - Coronado Little Cycos
Los Angeles - Mid City Tiny Winos
Los Angeles - Witmer Street Locos
Los Angeles - Normandies Locos Salvatruchas (NLS) also in AZ
Los Angeles - Silva Locos Salvatruchos
Los Angeles - LEEWARD GRANDES
Modesto - Modesto Locos Salvatruchos (MDLS)
San Fernando - Mara Salvatrucha NS
N. California - Mara Salvatrucha 20st Locos
N. California – MS-14 clique
San Francisco - Unidentified MS-13 Clique
Los Angeles - Adams St. Locotes Salvatruchos (ALS)

Maryland
Langley Park DC Area - Langley Park Salvatruchos (LPS)
DC Area - Sailors Locos Salvatrucha Westside (SLSW) also in VA
DC Area - Teclas Salvatrcha (TLS)
DC Area - Centrales Locos Salvatrucha (CEN)
DC Area - Leeward Lokotes Salvatrcha (LLS)
MD Unknown - PVLS (PLS)

Massachusetts
Trece Locos Salvatruchos (TLS)

Nebraska
Omaha - Omaha Locos Salvatrucha (OLS)

New Jersey
Newark - Plainfield Locos Salvatruchos (PLS)
Ocean County - MS-13 in Ocean County (no more specific name found)

New York
Brentwood - Brentwood Lokotes Salvatruchos
Nassau County - Long Beach Clique (no more specific name found)
Nassau County - The North Side Clique (no more specific name found)
Hempstead - Salvadorians with Pride
Central Islip - Central Islip lokotes salvatruchos
Hempstead - Hempstead Locotes Salvatruchos (HLS)
Westbury - Normandies Locotes Salvatruchos (NLS)
Westbury - Pelones Locotes Salvatruchos (PLS)
Westbury - Familia Mara Salvatrucha (FMS)
Mineola - Mineola Locotes Salvatruchos (MLS)
Freeport - Familia Locotes Salvatruchos (FLS)
Freeport - Freeport Locotes Salvatruchos (FLS)
Hicksville - Hicksville Coronados Salvatruchos (HCS)
Roosevelt - Roosevelt Locotes Salvatruchos (RLS)
Uniondale - Uniondale Locotes Salvatruchos (ULS)
Huntington - Huntington Criminal Locotes Salvatruchos (HCLS)
Brentwood - Brentwood Locotes Salvatruchos (BLS)
Copaigue - Copaigue Locotes Salvatruchos (CLS)
Westbury - Coronados Locotes Salvatruchos (CLS)
Jamaica, Queens - Coronados Locotes Salvatruchos (CLS)
Forrest Hills, Queens - Coronados Mara Salvatrucha (CMS)
Jamaica, Queens - Jamaica Central Locotes Salvatruchos (JCLS)
Far Rockaway, Queens - Surenos Locotes Salvatruchos (SLS)
Sunset Park, Brooklyn - Brooklyn Mara Salvatrucha (BMS)
Bronx - Hunts Point Locote Salvatruchos

North Carolina
Durham - Durham Clique (no more specific name found)

Tennessee
Memphis - Memphis Clique (no more specific name found)

Texas
Dallas - Directa Loco Salvatruchas (DLS)
Dallas - Carrolton Farmers Branch Locos Salvatrucha (CFBLS)
Dallas - Chilangeras Loco Salvatrucha
Dallas - NDLS (no more specific name found)
Dallas - Loco Salvatrucha (no more specific name found)
Houston - Greenspoint Clique (no more specific name found)

Virginia
N. Virginia - Guanacos Little Cycos Salvatruchos (GLSC)
Richmond - Coronado Locos Salvatruchos
Richmond - Centrales Locos Salvatruchos (CEN)
Richmond - Silva Locos Salvatruchos
N. Virginia - Big Gangsters Locos Salvatrucha (BGLS)
N. Virginia - Modesto Locos Salvatruchos (MDLS)
N. Virginia - Parvis Locos Salvatruchos (PLS)
N. Virginia - Virginia Locos Salvatruchos
N. Virginia - Silvas Locotes

Washington
Seattle - Silva Locos Salvatrucha 13 (SLS)
Seattle - Parvis Locos Salvatrucha 13 (PLS)
Pasadena? - Mara Salvatrucha Pasadena Lokotes Salvatrucha 13 (PLS)
Seattle - Mara Salvatrucha Seattle Lokotes Salvatrucha 13 (SLS)

International
El Salvador - Valle Nuevo Locotes Salvatruchos (VNLS)
El Salvador - Ilberia Locos Salvatruckos
El Salvador - Guanackos Locos (GLS)

The Threat Grows

2008-11-18T15:29:00Z

Gang Threat Could Top Al Qaeda
Wired Magazine : Noah Shachtman : November 17th 2008

Summary:
John Sullivan, a Lieutenant with the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department is reporting that the drug cartels on the US/Mexican border have clearly abandoned a co-option and corruption approach to dealing with the Mexican government, and have shifted to all out violence in order to secure safe havens of operation within the Mexican state. Mexico is now embroiled in a ‘criminal insurgency'. The violence from this war has spread north and is used by gangs such as MS-13, who operate as partners and foot soldiers for the drug cartels. These criminal cartels have access to weapons, finance, a US domestic support network, making them far more threatening to US national security than Al Qaeda.

Comment:
John Sullivan is spot on. Increasing violence along the Mexican border is well documented, and is now spreading into cities like Houston and Phoenix, which have seen an increase in crimes like kidnapping. This is likely a result of limited resources and attention being given to secure our southern “border”, which among other things, originates with at media highly sympathetic to illegal aliens and unwilling to recognize the catastrophic downsides of this issue. Looking forward, there is no foreseeable reason for this trend to diminish. The new administration will no doubt continue the status quo, making no serious efforts to protect the geographic integrity of the nation. As do all businesses, the cartels will continue try to achieve dominance of their distribution chains, which are in all US cities. Expect these kinds of violence, kidnappings and decapitations to start occurring in the larger drug markets.

Link:
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/11/john-p-sullivan.html

Dateline

2008-11-15T16:18:26Z

Mexican Drug Cartels Behind Surge in Arizona Kidnappings & Home Invasions
CBS News Dateline : November 15th 2008

Link: http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=219983

Comment:
Dateline clearly states the problem in this episode. They clearly explain who, what, where, and when. However, they completely neglect the question why?

More MS Mayhem

2008-11-10T02:34:00Z

MS-13 Murder in Silver Spring
The Washington Post : Daniel de Vise and Aaron C. Davis : November 9th 2008

Summary:
On November 1st, a 14 year old Blair High School, Honor Roll student, Tai Lam, was murdered as he rode a city bus. The details of the incident are somewhat vague at this point. What has been reported so far is that there was an argument on the bus. Then three Hispanic males exited the bus, one held a rear door open, while another fired several rounds into three teenagers onboard, wounding 2 and killing Tai Lam. Police have arrested Gilmar L. Romero, 20, and Mario E. Milan-Canales, 30, in Houston, and Hector M. Hernandez, 20, in Montgomery County, MD. All are believed to be members of MS-13, and in the country illegally. There is no reporting yet indicating the injured teens had any gang affiliation. Interestingly, according to the Washington Post, Hector Hernandez had a MySpace page with multiple indications of gang involvement.

Comment:
Beyond the gang links to Houston, which appear to be growing, driven by the increasing cartel influence in our southern border cities, this sad episode reinforces something Msthirteen.com has frequently reported on. That is the use of social networking sites by gang members. They are proud of their affiliation, and use these services to advertise their association. Gang investigators should be conducting surveillance on these sites in order to gain an understanding of the gang networks operating within their jurisdiction, and how they connect to other jurisdictions. In the case of the Newark Murders in August 2007, detectives used social networking sites to track and apprehend the suspects in Prince Georges County, MD.

Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/08/AR2008110802432.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/11/14/ST2008111400925.html

Zetas

2008-11-07T20:55:00Z

Zeta Weapons Cache
Houston Chronicle reposted on MilitaryPhotos.net : Dudley Althaus : November 7th 2008

Link:
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?p=3678452

Comment:
MilitaryPhotos.net frequently has high quality photos of military themed news events. They happen to have great photos of a massive, recently captured, Zeta arms cache, the largest in Mexican history. The cache was discovered on November 7th, when Mexican authorities executed a raid in Reynosa and captured Jaime Gonzalez, nicknamed "The Hummer," described as a founder of the Zetas. According to the Houston Chronicle, the cache included 400 pistols and rifles, 500,000 bullets, 165 grenades, several grenade launchers, six heavy machine guns and an anti-tank rocket launcher. A quick check of the photos reveals numerous, 40mm grenades and launchers, many fragmentary hand grenades, several .50 cal sniper rifles, and rifles of all sizes and shapes. However, “heavy machine guns” or “anti-tank rocket launchers” could not be located. Overall, the size of this cache gives a clear indication of the goals and means of the Gulf Cartel. It seems clear, given that this probably is not their only weapons cache, the Gulf Cartel is now more heavily armed than any branch of law enforcement in North America, and they will use whatever violence they need to achieve their goal, domination of the drug trade.

Community Shield Continues

2008-06-20T01:46:00Z

149 Arrested in S.E. Texas “Operation Community Shield” Crackdown on Gangs
Houston Chronicle : Susan Carrol : June 9th 2008

Link:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5826219.html

Summary:
Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents teamed with law enforcement agencies in Houston and seven other Texas cities have staged a major multiagency crackdown as part of the ongoing “Operation Community Shield”. Nearly 150 people were arrested, including 67 suspected gang members. Of this number an estimated 12 were members of MS-13.

Analysis:
Operation Community Shield, which began in February 2005, is something Msthirteen.com has commented on before. It seems to be more of a program than an operation, because it’s unclear what the end state ICE is hoping to achieve or when they hope to achieve it. Instead it seems more like an ongoing program to team ICE agents with local law enforcement, who can’t normally deport detainees. In this way, when raids are executed, if there is insufficient evidence to prosecute based on gang activities, suspicious persons or the close associates and suspected gang members can still be deported. Thus far ICE reports to have arrested a total of 7,655 street gang members and associates as part of this program.

Who Said Train Robbery Was Dead?

2008-06-16T00:08:00Z

Video Illuminating How MS Members Rob Illegals Headed North.

Analysis:
It is unclear which news organization produced this video. It's interesting because it focuses on one of the activities MS-13 uses to finance itself, robbing illegals headed north. Msthirteen.com reported on this phenomenon in the past, specifically the robbery gangs that prey on the Chiapas-Mayab rail line. This video focuses specifically on illegalls who fall prey to gangs while riding the north bound freight trains. It is an interesting look at a subject that until now hasn’t received much attention.

Update:
Here is another video posted online, which shows a number of people aboard a train headed north.

Murder Plot Disrupted

2008-06-09T18:31:00Z

Toronto Police Disrupt A MS-13 Assassination Plot
Reuters : Lionel Perron : June 5^th 2008

Link:
http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAN0533595820080605

Summary:
22 pre-dawn raids in Toronto have led to the arrest of 17 MS-13 members who were plotting to kill a corrections officer. Alternate reporting indicates that this action was likely an attempt by this nascent clique to establish themselves. Toronto is thought to have about 200 MS-13 members

Brazen

2008-06-08T18:08:00Z

Video of a Zeta Recruitment Banner
ABC News : April 2008

Analytical note:
In this video, the Zetas have apparently solicited for recruits with military experience using a large banner posted on a pedestrian bridge. The banner features a number to call for interested parties. The exact date of this video is unclear but it was posted at the end of April. The video also shows a sizable number of Mexican security forces who were tasked to pull it down. This is clearly a demonstration of the Zetas large and growing power. One can’t help but wonder weather the intent of the banner was in fact to recruit, or to spread fear and create the perception that the Zetas are so powerful that they can recruit openly on public streets.

Additional Reporting:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/06/AR2008050602566_pf.html

Zetas Moving Up

2008-06-08T17:22:00Z

Zetas Forming Independent Cartel
KRGV TV : May 20th 2008

Summary:
Mexican media and Stratfor intelligence agency are reporting the Zetas are becoming an independent drug cartel. The new cartel is an alliance between Heriberto Lazcano, believed to be leader of the Zetas, and Arturo Beltran-Levya, a former commander of the Sinaloa drug cartel. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency says the Zetas can "beat any cartel currently known and become a real national security problem for Mexico and the United States."

Link:
http://www.newschannel5.tv/2008/5/20/991552/Zetas-Forming-Independent-Cartel

Analysis:
As you may know, for the past several years the Zetas, former Mexican Special Forces turned Gulf Cartel mercenaries, have been wreaking havoc along the US Mexican border. As Msthirteen.com predicted, the Zetas have finally realized that they need not subordinate themselves to a less competent organization like the Gulf Cartel. This is definitely bad news for the US, specifically the border communities of Laredo and Brownsville Texas. As reported by Msthirteen.com in the past, members of MS-13 are sometimes hired as low level operatives within the Zetas. The increasing scope of operations the Zetas will now be undertaking may necessitate an increase in the recruitment of Central American street gang members. Military prowess doesn’t necessarily always transfer into business success, so I would expect the Zetas to have the same types of purely business issues as other cartels. However, there sophisticated special operations background will certainly help. It remains to be seen whether this sophistication will trickle down into their newly developing distribution networks.

New Look (UPDATED)

2008-02-11T03:07:00Z

MS-13 Emergent Intelligence? (Updated with Video)
Tim Reed : Msthirteen.com : December 10th 2007

I read an interesting book recently. It was John Robb’s Brave New War. Overall, the book discusses what Robb calls, “open-source warfare” and focuses mostly on events in Iraq to demonstrate his points. The main point being, that new global, networked, tribes of entrepreneurs, Islamic extremists, criminals, technologists, and individuals now challenge the legitimacy of the nation state, and will ultimately force nation states to change from hierarchical organizations to dispersed networks. Those that don’t, he asserts, will become more and more obsolete.

An interesting sub-focus of his discussion was what is called,“emergent intelligence”, which is the type of intelligence that exists in a bee or ant colony. Put simply, emergent intelligence mean no group of bees is planning or directing the effort in a way most would intuitively recognize. However, the colony is built, supplied, and defended as if one of the individuals was planning it. This is facilitated by complex social interactions and stigmergy. Stigmergy is a biological term which means the use of environmental mechanisms for coordinating the work of independent actors. Robb cites as examples of this, such as ants using pheromones to mark a trail to food. Similarly, humans might use a web link to direct others to a source of information.

Within a highly complex, networked organization like an insurgency or gang these stigmergic information systems can become so complex that they produce emergent intelligence. In short, the intelligence of the whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts. Hence, though no one is an identifiable leader and there is no written standard operation procedure or line and block chart. The whole organization will pursue goals, adapt, innovate, and attack. Robb identifies several stigmergic information systems that have allowed to the Iraqi insurgency to display emergent intelligence. He cites, but doesn’t fully explain, 4 main types:

Marker based – these are signs left by insurgents for others. Robb uses the example of a successful insurgent attack reported by the media, which signals other insurgents to try that same type of attack. Another example could be that as insurgents search for new technology on the internet the useful finds are highly linked, and hence more insurgents find it, etc.

Sematechtonic – These are changes in the environment. Robb describes how increased security on a particular target set can act as a signal to potential attackers to select another target.

Quantitative – These are also changes in the environment. This describes how the size of the security force response provides information to the insurgents about the effectiveness of the attack.

Qualitative – This describes how information about the method, type, location, time, and target of an attack lead others to the most effective next steps.

Now that I’ve crudely described the stigmergic information systems exhibited by the Iraqi insurgency as reported by Robb. The question begs. Is there any stigmergic information systems associated with MS-13, which facilitate emergent intelligence?

We know that MS-13 is a complex organization. Probably not as complex or as dedicated as the Iraqi insurgency, but still amply complex. We know that they form cliques, which are primarily geographically based. We know that they use social networking sites like myspace.com. Within these sites, we know that inter-clique transfers of information take place. We know that they probably on some level are influenced by the media. Given this, are there stigmergics at play? Sorry, I haven’t determined that yet, or even determined the quantity of emergent intelligence MS-13 displays if any.

My purpose in focusing on emergent intelligence in this post is to highlight a new paradigm for conducting MS-13 analysis. In the past, me and others have analyzed MS-13 with only a loose network, or top down hierarchy in mind. Moving forward, I think it could be useful to keep these two models but add to them the emergent intelligence stigmergics. My first guess is that MS-13 probably exhibits a mixture of all three of these models depending on where you look.

Update: More on ant colonies and stigmergy from the Technology Entertainment Design (TED) Conference.