MS-13 News and Analysis
MS-13 News and Analysis

The Threat Grows

Gang Threat Could Top Al Qaeda
Wired Magazine : Noah Shachtman : November 17th 2008

Summary:
John Sullivan, a Lieutenant with the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department is reporting that the drug cartels on the US/Mexican border have clearly abandoned a co-option and corruption approach to dealing with the Mexican government, and have shifted to all out violence in order to secure safe havens of operation within the Mexican state. Mexico is now embroiled in a ‘criminal insurgency'. The violence from this war has spread north and is used by gangs such as MS-13, who operate as partners and foot soldiers for the drug cartels. These criminal cartels have access to weapons, finance, a US domestic support network, making them far more threatening to US national security than Al Qaeda.

Comment:
John Sullivan is spot on. Increasing violence along the Mexican border is well documented, and is now spreading into cities like Houston and Phoenix, which have seen an increase in crimes like kidnapping. This is likely a result of limited resources and attention being given to secure our southern “border”, which among other things, originates with at media highly sympathetic to illegal aliens and unwilling to recognize the catastrophic downsides of this issue. Looking forward, there is no foreseeable reason for this trend to diminish. The new administration will no doubt continue the status quo, making no serious efforts to protect the geographic integrity of the nation. As do all businesses, the cartels will continue try to achieve dominance of their distribution chains, which are in all US cities. Expect these kinds of violence, kidnappings and decapitations to start occurring in the larger drug markets.

Link:
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/11/john-p-sullivan.html

Posted by Tim Reed at 11/18/2008 11:29 AM | Add Comment

Dateline

Mexican Drug Cartels Behind Surge in Arizona Kidnappings & Home Invasions
CBS News Dateline : November 15th 2008

Link: http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=219983

Comment:
Dateline clearly states the problem in this episode. They clearly explain who, what, where, and when. However, they completely neglect the question why?

Posted by Tim Reed at 11/15/2008 12:18 PM | View Comments (1) | Add Comment

More MS Mayhem

MS-13 Murder in Silver Spring
The Washington Post : Daniel de Vise and Aaron C. Davis : November 9th 2008

Summary:
On November 1st, a 14 year old Blair High School, Honor Roll student, Tai Lam, was murdered as he rode a city bus. The details of the incident are somewhat vague at this point. What has been reported so far is that there was an argument on the bus. Then three Hispanic males exited the bus, one held a rear door open, while another fired several rounds into three teenagers onboard, wounding 2 and killing Tai Lam. Police have arrested Gilmar L. Romero, 20, and Mario E. Milan-Canales, 30, in Houston,  and Hector M. Hernandez, 20, in Montgomery County, MD. All are believed to be members of MS-13, and in the country illegally. There is no reporting yet indicating the injured teens had any gang affiliation. Interestingly, according to the Washington Post, Hector Hernandez had a MySpace page with multiple indications of gang involvement.

Comment:
Beyond the gang links to Houston, which appear to be growing, driven by the increasing cartel influence in our southern border cities, this sad episode reinforces something Msthirteen.com has frequently reported on. That is the use of social networking sites by gang members. They are proud of their affiliation, and use these services to advertise their association. Gang investigators should be conducting surveillance on these sites in order to gain an understanding of the gang networks operating within their jurisdiction, and how they connect to other jurisdictions. In the case of the Newark Murders in August 2007, detectives used social networking sites to track and apprehend the suspects in Prince Georges County, MD.

Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/08/AR2008110802432.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/11/14/ST2008111400925.html

Posted by Tim Reed at 11/9/2008 10:34 PM | View Comments (2) | Add Comment

Zetas

Zeta Weapons Cache
Houston Chronicle reposted on MilitaryPhotos.net : Dudley Althaus : November 7th 2008

Link:
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?p=3678452

Comment:
MilitaryPhotos.net frequently has high quality photos of military themed news events. They happen to have great photos of a massive, recently captured, Zeta arms cache, the largest in Mexican history. The cache was discovered on November 7th, when Mexican authorities executed a raid in Reynosa and captured Jaime Gonzalez, nicknamed "The Hummer," described as a founder of the Zetas. According to the Houston Chronicle,  the cache included 400 pistols and rifles, 500,000 bullets, 165 grenades, several grenade launchers, six heavy machine guns and an anti-tank rocket launcher. A quick check of the photos reveals numerous, 40mm grenades and launchers, many fragmentary hand grenades, several .50 cal sniper rifles, and rifles of all sizes and shapes. However, “heavy machine guns” or “anti-tank rocket launchers” could not be located.  Overall, the size of this cache gives a clear indication of the goals and means of the Gulf Cartel. It seems clear, given that this probably is not their only weapons cache, the Gulf Cartel is now more heavily armed than any branch of law enforcement in North America, and they will use whatever violence they need to achieve their goal, domination of the drug trade.

Posted by Tim Reed at 11/7/2008 4:55 PM | Add Comment

Community Shield Continues

149 Arrested in S.E. Texas “Operation Community Shield” Crackdown on Gangs
Houston Chronicle : Susan Carrol : June 9th 2008

Link:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5826219.html

Summary:
Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents teamed with law enforcement agencies in Houston and seven other Texas cities have staged a major multiagency crackdown as part of the ongoing “Operation Community Shield”. Nearly 150 people were arrested, including 67 suspected gang members. Of this number an estimated 12 were members of MS-13.

Analysis:
Operation Community Shield, which began in February 2005, is something Msthirteen.com has commented on before. It seems to be more of a program than an operation, because it’s unclear what the end state ICE is hoping to achieve or when they hope to achieve it. Instead it seems more like an ongoing program to team ICE agents with local law enforcement, who can’t normally deport detainees. In this way, when raids are executed, if there is insufficient evidence to prosecute based on gang activities, suspicious persons or the close associates and suspected gang members can still be deported. Thus far ICE reports to have arrested a total of 7,655 street gang members and associates as part of this program.

Posted by Tim Reed at 6/19/2008 9:46 PM | Add Comment

Who Said Train Robbery Was Dead?

Video Illuminating How MS Members Rob Illegals Headed North.






Analysis:
It is unclear which news organization produced this video. It's interesting because it focuses on one of the activities MS-13 uses to finance itself, robbing illegals headed north. Msthirteen.com reported on this phenomenon in the past, specifically the robbery gangs that prey on the Chiapas-Mayab rail line. This video focuses specifically on illegalls who fall prey to gangs while riding the north bound freight trains. It is an interesting look at a subject that until now hasn’t received much attention.

Update:
Here is another video posted online, which shows a number of people aboard a train headed north.

Posted by Tim Reed at 6/15/2008 8:08 PM | View Comments (2) | Add Comment

Murder Plot Disrupted

Toronto Police Disrupt A MS-13 Assassination Plot
Reuters : Lionel Perron : June 5th 2008

Link:
http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAN0533595820080605
 
Summary:
22 pre-dawn raids in Toronto have led to the arrest of 17 MS-13 members who were plotting to kill a corrections officer. Alternate reporting indicates that this action was likely an attempt by this nascent clique to establish themselves. Toronto is thought to have about 200 MS-13 members

Posted by Tim Reed at 6/9/2008 2:31 PM | Add Comment

Brazen

Video of a Zeta Recruitment Banner
ABC News : April 2008




Analytical note:
In this video, the Zetas have apparently solicited for recruits with military experience using a large banner posted on a pedestrian bridge. The banner features a number to call for interested parties. The exact date of this video is unclear but it was posted at the end of April. The video also shows a sizable number of Mexican security forces who were tasked to pull it down. This is clearly a demonstration of the Zetas large and growing power. One can’t help but wonder weather the intent of the banner was in fact to recruit, or to spread fear and create the perception that the Zetas are so powerful that they can recruit openly on public streets.

Additional Reporting:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/06/AR2008050602566_pf.html

Posted by Tim Reed at 6/8/2008 2:08 PM | Add Comment

Zetas Moving Up

Zetas Forming Independent Cartel
KRGV TV : May 20th 2008

Summary:
Mexican media and Stratfor intelligence agency are reporting the Zetas are becoming an independent drug cartel. The new cartel is an alliance between Heriberto Lazcano, believed to be leader of the Zetas, and Arturo Beltran-Levya, a former commander of the Sinaloa drug cartel. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency says the Zetas can "beat any cartel currently known and become a real national security problem for Mexico and the United States."

Link:
http://www.newschannel5.tv/2008/5/20/991552/Zetas-Forming-Independent-Cartel

Analysis:
As you may know, for the past several years the Zetas, former Mexican Special Forces turned Gulf Cartel mercenaries, have been wreaking havoc along the US Mexican border.  As Msthirteen.com predicted, the Zetas have finally realized that they need not subordinate themselves to a less competent organization like the Gulf Cartel. This is definitely bad news for the US, specifically the border communities of Laredo and Brownsville Texas. As reported by Msthirteen.com in the past, members of MS-13 are sometimes hired as low level operatives within the Zetas. The increasing scope of operations the Zetas will now be undertaking may necessitate an increase in the recruitment of Central American street gang members. Military prowess doesn’t necessarily always transfer into business success, so I would expect the Zetas to have the same types of purely business issues as other cartels. However, there sophisticated special operations background will certainly help. It remains to be seen whether this sophistication will trickle down into their newly developing distribution networks.

Posted by Tim Reed at 6/8/2008 1:22 PM | Add Comment

New Look (UPDATED)

MS-13 Emergent Intelligence? (Updated with Video)
Tim Reed : Msthirteen.com : December 10th 2007

I read an interesting book recently. It was John Robb’s Brave New War. Overall, the book discusses what Robb calls, “open-source warfare” and focuses mostly on events in Iraq to demonstrate his points. The main point being, that new global, networked, tribes of entrepreneurs, Islamic extremists, criminals, technologists, and individuals now challenge the legitimacy of the nation state, and will ultimately force nation states to change from hierarchical organizations to dispersed networks. Those that don’t, he asserts, will become more and more obsolete.

An interesting sub-focus of his discussion was what is called,“emergent intelligence”, which is the type of intelligence that exists in a bee or ant colony. Put simply, emergent intelligence mean no group of bees is planning or directing the effort in a way most would intuitively recognize. However, the colony is built, supplied, and defended as if one of the individuals was planning it. This is facilitated by complex social interactions and stigmergy. Stigmergy is a biological term which means the use of environmental mechanisms for coordinating the work of independent actors. Robb cites as examples of this, such as ants using pheromones to mark a trail to food. Similarly, humans might use a web link to direct others to a source of information.

Within a highly complex, networked organization like an insurgency or gang these stigmergic information systems can become so complex that they produce emergent intelligence. In short, the intelligence of the whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts. Hence, though no one is an identifiable leader and there is no written standard operation procedure or line and block chart. The whole organization will pursue goals, adapt, innovate, and attack. Robb identifies several stigmergic information systems that have allowed to the Iraqi insurgency to display emergent intelligence. He cites, but doesn’t fully explain, 4 main types:
  • Marker based – these are signs left by insurgents for others. Robb uses the example of a successful insurgent attack reported by the media, which signals other insurgents to try that same type of attack. Another example could be that as insurgents search for new technology on the internet the useful finds are highly linked, and hence more insurgents find it, etc.
  • Sematechtonic – These are changes in the environment. Robb describes how increased security on a particular target set can act as a signal to potential attackers to select another target.
  • Quantitative – These are also changes in the environment. This describes how the size of the security force response provides information to the insurgents about the effectiveness of the attack.
  • Qualitative – This describes how information about the method, type, location, time, and target of an attack lead others to the most effective next steps.

Now that I’ve crudely described the stigmergic information systems exhibited by the Iraqi insurgency as reported by Robb. The question begs. Is there any stigmergic information systems associated with MS-13, which facilitate emergent intelligence?

We know that MS-13 is a complex organization. Probably not as complex or as dedicated as the Iraqi insurgency, but still amply complex. We know that they form cliques, which are primarily geographically based. We know that they use social networking sites like myspace.com. Within these sites, we know that inter-clique transfers of information take place. We know that they probably on some level are influenced by the media. Given this, are there stigmergics at play? Sorry, I haven’t determined that yet, or even determined the quantity of emergent intelligence MS-13 displays if any.

My purpose in focusing on emergent intelligence in this post is to highlight a new paradigm for conducting MS-13 analysis. In the past, me and others have analyzed MS-13 with only a loose network, or top down hierarchy in mind. Moving forward, I think it could be useful to keep these two models but add to them the emergent intelligence stigmergics. My first guess is that MS-13 probably exhibits a mixture of all three of these models depending on where you look.

Update: More on ant colonies and stigmergy from the Technology Entertainment Design (TED) Conference.


Posted by Tim Reed at 2/10/2008 11:07 PM | Add Comment
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